Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2025

The Effect of Heat on Fertility in France

Résumé

We estimate the effects of heat on monthly fertility rates in 22 French region from 1975-2020. We find that days with a mean daily temperature above 25 C have an estimated effect of -0.260 and -0.256 percent on Total Fertility Rates nine and ten months later, respectively. We find that the negative association has become somewhat smaller over the window of analysis, and is heterogeneous at the sub-national level, with fertility rates in colder regions being affected at lower temperatures than in hot regions. We also find that the negative association is relevant across alternate methodologies. We furthermore discuss the potential role of humidity and air pollution in modifying the association between heat and fertility. Our findings suggest that the heat/fertility association is an important factor in debates on population aging in Europe and on the diversity of health risks posed by climate change.

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Sociologie
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Dates et versions

hal-04904750 , version 1 (23-01-2025)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04904750 , version 1

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Sophia Noel, Angela Greulich. The Effect of Heat on Fertility in France. 2025. ⟨hal-04904750⟩
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