Predicting medicine demand fluctuations through Markov chain
Résumé
Nowadays, the healthcare sector is rapidly changing. Hospitals are facing limited budgets and high costs. The logistics activities of the hospitals in France (stock management, delivery, etc.) represent one of the highest cost components. The logistic costs can be reduced through an optimized inventory management system. The inventory optimization is strongly dependent on the accuracy of the demand prediction of medicines. Many factors influence this demand, such as seasonality, hospital size and location, etc. The objective of the paper is to propose a Markov chain model to estimate medicine demand fluctuations for hospital logistics in France. An analysis of the first experimental results is proposed to assess the effectiveness of the method. This preliminary result could contribute to the management of hospital inventories.
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