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Article Dans Une Revue Hydrological Sciences Journal Année : 2017

Non-stationary future return levels for extreme rainfall over Extremadura (southwestern Iberian Peninsula)

Francisco Javier Acero
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Sylvie Parey
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Thi Thu Huong Hoang
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Résumé

Based on a previous study for temperature, a new method for the calculation of non-stationary return levels for extreme rainfall is described and applied to a southwestern Spanish Region – Extremadura, using the peaks-over-threshold approach. Both all-days and rainy-days-only datasets were considered and the 20-year return levels expected in 2020 were estimated taking different trends into account: first, for all days, considering a time-dependent threshold and the trend in the scale parameter of the Generalized Pareto Distribution; and second, for rainy days only, considering the role of how the mean, variance, and number of rainy days evolve. Generally, the changes in mean, variance and number of rainy days can explain the observed trends in extremes, and their extrapolation gives more robust estimations. The results point to a decrease of future return levels in 2020 for spring and winter, but an increase for autumn.
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Dates et versions

hal-01570012 , version 1 (28-07-2017)

Identifiants

Citer

Francisco Javier Acero, Sylvie Parey, Thi Thu Huong Hoang, Didier Dacunha-Castelle, José Agustín García, et al.. Non-stationary future return levels for extreme rainfall over Extremadura (southwestern Iberian Peninsula). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2017, 62 (9), pp.1394-1411. ⟨10.1080/02626667.2017.1328559⟩. ⟨hal-01570012⟩
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