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Article Dans Une Revue Earth System Science Data Année : 2018

Global Carbon Budget 2017

Etsushi Kato 29 , Markus Kautz 30 , Ralph F. Keeling 31

Corinne Le Quéré (1) , Robbie M. Andrew (2) , Pierre Friedlingstein (3) , Stephen Sitch (4) , Julia Pongratz (5) , Andrew C. Manning , Jan Ivar Korsbakken (2) , Glen P. Peters (2) , Josep G. Canadell (6) , Robert B. Jackson (7) , Thomas A. Boden (8) , Pieter P. Tans (9) , Oliver D. Andrews (1) , Vivek Arora (10) , Dorothee C. E. Bakker (11) , Leticia Barbero (12, 13) , Meike Becker (14, 15) , Richard Betts , Laurent Bopp (16) , Frédéric Chevallier (17, 18) , Louise P. Chini (19) , Philippe Ciais (17, 20) , Catherine E. Cosca (21) , Jessica Cross (21) , Kim Currie (22) , Thomas Gasser (23) , Ian Harris (24) , Judith Hauck (25) , Vanessa Haverd (26) , Richard A. Houghton (27) , Christopher W. Hunt (28) , George Hurtt (19) , Tatiana Ilyina (5) , Atul K. Jain (29) , Etsushi Kato (30) , Markus Kautz (31) , Ralph F. Keeling (32) , Kees Klein Goldewijk (33) , Arne Körtzinger (34) , Peter Landschützer (11) , Nathalie Lefèvre (35) , Andrew Lenton (36, 37) , Sebastian Lienert (38, 39) , Ivan D. Lima (27) , Danica Lombardozzi (40) , Nicolas Metzl (41) , Frank J. Millero (42) , Pedro M. S. Monteiro (43) , David R. Munro (44) , Julia E. M. S. Nabel , Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka (45) , Yukihiro Nojiri (45) , X. Antonio Padin , Anna Peregon (17) , Benjamin Pfeil (46) , Denis Pierrot (13) , Benjamin Poulter (47) , Gregor Rehder , Janet Reimer , Christian Rödenbeck (48) , Jörg Schwinger , Roland Séférian (49) , Ingunn Skjelvan (14) , Benjamin D. Stocker , Hanqin Tian (50) , Bronte Tilbrook (51) , Francesco Tubiello , Ingrid T. van Der Laan-Luijkx (52) , Guido R. van Der Werf (53) , Steven M. A. C. van Heuven , Nicolas Viovy (17, 54) , Nicolas Vuichard (17, 54) , Anthony P. Walker , Andrew J. Watson (55) , Andrew J. Wiltshire , Sönke Zaehle (56) , Dan Zhu (57)
1 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
2 CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
3 College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences
4 University of Exeter
5 MPI-M - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
6 Global Carbon Project
7 ESS - Department of Earth System Science [Stanford]
8 CCSI - Climate Change Science Institute [Oak Ridge]
9 CSD - ESRL Chemical Sciences Division [Boulder]
10 CCCma - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
11 UEA - University of East Anglia [Norwich]
12 CIMAS - Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science
13 AOML - NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
14 BCCR - Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
15 GFI / BiU - Geophysical Institute [Bergen]
16 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
17 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
18 SATINV - Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires
19 Department of Geographical Sciences
20 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
21 PMEL - NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle]
22 NIWA - National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington]
23 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
24 Climatic Research Unit
25 AWI - Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine
26 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
27 WHOI - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
28 Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory
29 Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana]
30 IAE - Institute of Applied Energy
31 KIT - Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
32 UC San Diego - University of California [San Diego]
33 PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
34 CAU - Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel = Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel = Université Christian-Albrechts de Kiel
35 ABC - Austral, Boréal et Carbone
36 CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere
37 Antarctic Climate & Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre
38 CEP - Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern]
39 OCCR - Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
40 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
41 CYBIOM - Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations
42 Department of Ocean Sciences
43 INESC-ID - Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa
44 University of Wisconsin Whitewater
45 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
46 UiB - University of Bergen
47 MSU - Montana State University
48 MPI-BGC - Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie
49 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques
50 SDAU - Shandong Agricultural University
51 ACE-CRC - Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
52 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
53 FALW - Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam]
54 MOSAIC - Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales
55 ARC - NASA Ames Research Center
56 Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena]
57 HUST - Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan]
Stephen Sitch
Julia Pongratz
Andrew C. Manning
  • Fonction : Auteur
Richard Betts
  • Fonction : Auteur
George Hurtt
Tatiana Ilyina
Etsushi Kato
Markus Kautz
Nathalie Lefèvre
Ivan D. Lima
David R. Munro
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1001554
Julia E. M. S. Nabel
  • Fonction : Auteur
X. Antonio Padin
  • Fonction : Auteur
Benjamin Poulter
Gregor Rehder
  • Fonction : Auteur
Janet Reimer
  • Fonction : Auteur
Christian Rödenbeck
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 966359
Jörg Schwinger
Benjamin D. Stocker
  • Fonction : Auteur
Hanqin Tian
Francesco Tubiello
Steven M. A. C. van Heuven
  • Fonction : Auteur
Anthony P. Walker
  • Fonction : Auteur
Andrew J. Watson
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 871545
Andrew J. Wiltshire
  • Fonction : Auteur
Sönke Zaehle
Dan Zhu
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1023090

Résumé

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).
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Dates et versions

hal-01816835 , version 1 (08-09-2020)

Identifiants

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Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, et al.. Global Carbon Budget 2017. Earth System Science Data, 2018, 10 (1), pp.405 - 448. ⟨10.5194/essd-10-405-2018⟩. ⟨hal-01816835⟩
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