Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation - CNRS - Centre national de la recherche scientifique Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Geophysical Research Letters Année : 2017

Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation

Résumé

In the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, multimodel ensembles (arithmetic model averaging, AMA) were constructed with equal weights given to Earth system models, without considering the performance of each model at reproducing current conditions. Here we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to construct a weighted model ensemble for runoff projections. Higher weights are given to models with better performance in estimating historical decadal mean runoff. Using the BMA method, we find that by the end of this century, the increase of global runoff (9.8 ± 1.5%) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 is significantly lower than estimated from AMA (12.2 ± 1.3%). BMA presents a less severe runoff increase than AMA at northern high latitudes and a more severe decrease in Amazonia. Runoff decrease in Amazonia is stronger than the intermodel difference. The intermodel difference in runoff changes is mainly caused not only by precipitation differences among models, but also by evapotranspiration differences at the high northern latitudes.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
2017GL073454.pdf (2.01 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-02903510 , version 1 (06-05-2021)

Licence

Paternité

Identifiants

Citer

Hui Yang, Feng Zhou, Shilong Piao, Mengtian Huang, Anping Chen, et al.. Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation. Geophysical Research Letters, 2017, 44 (11), pp.5540-5549. ⟨10.1002/2017GL073454⟩. ⟨hal-02903510⟩
31 Consultations
123 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More