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Article Dans Une Revue Geoscientific Model Development Année : 2017

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Sébastien Denvil
  • Fonction : Auteur
Kerry Emanuel
Tobias Geiger
Kate Halladay
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George Hurtt
Matthias Mengel
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Daisuke Murakami
  • Fonction : Auteur
Miodrag Stevanovic
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Tatsuo Suzuki
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Eleanor Burke
Kristie Ebi
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Tyler Eddy
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Fred Hattermann
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jonas Jägermeyr
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  • PersonId : 1019460
Valentina Krysanova
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Rafael Marcé
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Ioanna Mouratiadou
Don Pierson
Derek Tittensor
  • Fonction : Auteur
Matthias Biber
  • Fonction : Auteur
Chris Jones
Hanqin Tian

Résumé

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 • C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 • C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socioeconomic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socioeconomic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).
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Dates et versions

hal-02922298 , version 1 (08-09-2020)

Identifiants

Citer

Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher Reyer, Jacob Schewe, et al.. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geoscientific Model Development, 2017, 10 (12), pp.4321-4345. ⟨10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017⟩. ⟨hal-02922298⟩
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