Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
Katja Frieler
(1)
,
Stefan Lange
(1)
,
Franziska Piontek
(1)
,
Christopher Reyer
(1)
,
Jacob Schewe
(2)
,
Lila Warszawski
(2)
,
Fang Zhao
(1)
,
Louise Chini
(3)
,
Sébastien Denvil
,
Kerry Emanuel
,
Tobias Geiger
,
Kate Halladay
,
George Hurtt
(4)
,
Matthias Mengel
,
Daisuke Murakami
,
Sebastian Ostberg
(1)
,
Alexander Popp
(5)
,
Riccardo Riva
(6)
,
Miodrag Stevanovic
,
Tatsuo Suzuki
,
Jan Volkholz
(1)
,
Eleanor Burke
(7)
,
Philippe Ciais
(8, 9)
,
Kristie Ebi
,
Tyler Eddy
,
Joshua Elliott
(10)
,
Eric D Galbraith
(11)
,
Simon Gosling
(12)
,
Fred Hattermann
,
Thomas Hickler
(13)
,
Jochen Hinkel
(14)
,
Christian Hof
(15)
,
Veronika Huber
(1)
,
Jonas Jägermeyr
(16)
,
Valentina Krysanova
,
Rafael Marcé
,
Hannes Müller Schmied
(17)
,
Ioanna Mouratiadou
(18)
,
Don Pierson
,
Derek Tittensor
,
Robert Vautard
(8, 19)
,
Michelle van Vliet
(20)
,
Matthias Biber
,
Richard Betts
(21)
,
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
(1)
,
Delphine Deryng
(22)
,
Steve Frolking
(23)
,
Chris Jones
(24)
,
Heike Lotze
(25)
,
Hermann Lotze-Campen
(1)
,
Ritvik Sahajpal
(26)
,
Kirsten Thonicke
(1)
,
Hanqin Tian
(27)
,
Yoshiki Yamagata
(28)
1
PIK -
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
2 PIK - Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
3 University of Maryland [College Park]
4 Department of Geographical Sciences
5 Institute for Computational Mechanics
6 UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1
7 MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre
8 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
9 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
10 University of Chicago
11 EPS - Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Montréal]
12 School of Geography [Nottingham]
13 SBiK-F - Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
14 Global Climate Forum e.V.
15 Senckenberg Museum [Frankfurt]
16 Research Domain Earth System Analysis
17 Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main
18 Scottish Agricultural College
19 ESTIMR - Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation
20 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
21 College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter]
22 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
23 UNH - University of New Hampshire
24 UOR - University of Reading
25 Dalhousie University [Halifax]
26 Department of Geographical Sciences
27 SDAU - Shandong Agricultural University
28 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
2 PIK - Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
3 University of Maryland [College Park]
4 Department of Geographical Sciences
5 Institute for Computational Mechanics
6 UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1
7 MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre
8 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
9 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
10 University of Chicago
11 EPS - Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Montréal]
12 School of Geography [Nottingham]
13 SBiK-F - Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
14 Global Climate Forum e.V.
15 Senckenberg Museum [Frankfurt]
16 Research Domain Earth System Analysis
17 Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main
18 Scottish Agricultural College
19 ESTIMR - Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation
20 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
21 College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter]
22 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
23 UNH - University of New Hampshire
24 UOR - University of Reading
25 Dalhousie University [Halifax]
26 Department of Geographical Sciences
27 SDAU - Shandong Agricultural University
28 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
Sébastien Denvil
- Fonction : Auteur
Kerry Emanuel
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 802160
- ORCID : 0000-0002-2066-2082
Tobias Geiger
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 802161
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8059-8270
Kate Halladay
- Fonction : Auteur
George Hurtt
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 790996
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7278-202X
Matthias Mengel
- Fonction : Auteur
Daisuke Murakami
- Fonction : Auteur
Miodrag Stevanovic
- Fonction : Auteur
Tatsuo Suzuki
- Fonction : Auteur
Eleanor Burke
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 791755
- ORCID : 0000-0002-2158-141X
Philippe Ciais
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 756308
- ORCID : 0000-0001-8560-4943
- IdRef : 092241700
Kristie Ebi
- Fonction : Auteur
Tyler Eddy
- Fonction : Auteur
Fred Hattermann
- Fonction : Auteur
Thomas Hickler
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 765106
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4668-7552
Veronika Huber
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 791485
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9633-2752
Valentina Krysanova
- Fonction : Auteur
Rafael Marcé
- Fonction : Auteur
Ioanna Mouratiadou
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 754998
- IdHAL : ioanna-mouratiadou
- ORCID : 0000-0002-3541-6271
Don Pierson
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 793158
- ORCID : 0000-0001-6230-0146
Derek Tittensor
- Fonction : Auteur
Matthias Biber
- Fonction : Auteur
Delphine Deryng
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772077
- ORCID : 0000-0001-6214-7241
Kirsten Thonicke
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 778135
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5283-4937
Hanqin Tian
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 760801
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1806-4091
Résumé
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 • C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 • C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socioeconomic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socioeconomic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).
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