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Article Dans Une Revue Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Année : 2020

Does CMIP6 Inspire More Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China?

Résumé

Based on climate extreme indices calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1961-2005, the performance of 12 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and 30 models from the phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5), are assessed in terms of spatial distribution and interannual variability. CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean (CMIP6-MME) can well simulate the spatial pattern of annual mean temperature, maximum daily maximum temperature and minimum daily minimum temperature. However, CMIP6-MME has difficulties to reproduce cold nights and warm days, and has large cold biases over the Tibetan Plateau. Its performance in simulating extreme precipitation indices is generally lower than in simulating temperature indices. Compared to CMIP5, CMIP6 models show improvements in the simulation of climate indices over China. This is particularly true for precipitation indices for both the climatological pattern and the interannual variation, except for the consecutive dry days. The areal-mean bias for total precipitation has been reduced from 127% (CMIP5-MME) to 79% (CMIP6-MME). The most striking feature is that the dry biases in southern China, very persistent and general in CMIP5-MME, are largely reduced in CMIP6-MME. A stronger ascent together with more abundant moisture can explain this reduction of dry biases. Wet biases for total precipitation, heavy precipitation and precipitation intensity in the eastern Tibetan Plateau are still present in CMIP6-MME, but smaller, compared to CMIP5-MME.
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Dates et versions

hal-03047353 , version 1 (08-12-2020)

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Huanhuan Zhu, Zhihong Jiang, Juan Li, Wei Li, Cenxiao Sun, et al.. Does CMIP6 Inspire More Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China?. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2020, 37 (10), pp.1119-1132. ⟨10.1007/s00376-020-9289-1⟩. ⟨hal-03047353⟩
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