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Article Dans Une Revue Journal of Glaciology Année : 2020

Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP)

Frank Pattyn
Reinhard Calov
  • Fonction : Auteur
Heiko Goelzer
Nicholas Golledge
  • Fonction : Auteur
Ralf Greve
Matthew Hoffman
  • Fonction : Auteur
Angelika Humbert
  • Fonction : Auteur
Elise Kazmierczak
  • Fonction : Auteur
Thomas Kleiner
Gunter Leguy
  • Fonction : Auteur
William Lipscomb
  • Fonction : Auteur
Daniel Martin
  • Fonction : Auteur
Mathieu Morlighem
Sophie Nowicki
David Pollard
Stephen Price
  • Fonction : Auteur
Hélène Seroussi
Tanja Schlemm
  • Fonction : Auteur
Johannes Sutter
  • Fonction : Auteur
Roderik van de Wal
  • Fonction : Auteur
Ricarda Winkelmann
  • Fonction : Auteur
Tong Zhang
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their 'buttressing' effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the 'end-member' scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 icesheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine icesheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1-12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91-5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.
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Dates et versions

hal-03047833 , version 1 (09-12-2020)

Identifiants

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Sainan Sun, Frank Pattyn, Erika Simon, Torsten Albrecht, Stephen Cornford, et al.. Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP). Journal of Glaciology, 2020, 66 (260), pp.891-904. ⟨10.1017/jog.2020.67⟩. ⟨hal-03047833⟩
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