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Article Dans Une Revue Global Change Biology Année : 2022

Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget

Ann Stavert
Josep Canadell
Benjamin Poulter
Robert Jackson
Peter Raymond
George Allen
  • Fonction : Auteur
Prabir Patra
Peter Bergamaschi
  • Fonction : Auteur
Naveen Chandra
Adrian Gustafson
  • Fonction : Auteur
Misa Ishizawa
  • Fonction : Auteur
Akihiko Ito
Thomas Kleinen
  • Fonction : Auteur
Shamil Maksyutov
  • Fonction : Auteur
Joe Mcnorton
  • Fonction : Auteur
Joe Melton
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jurek Müller
  • Fonction : Auteur
Yosuke Niwa
  • Fonction : Auteur
William Riley
  • Fonction : Auteur
Arjo Segers
  • Fonction : Auteur
Hanqin Tian
Aki Tsuruta
  • Fonction : Auteur
Yi Yin
Zhen Zhang
Qianlai Zhuang
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH4 ) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH4 emissions and CH4 accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000-2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18 land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top-down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model-based) and bottom-up (BU) (inventory- and process model-based) CH4 emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH4 emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions-China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil-account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2008-2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH4 emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH4 burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.
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Dates et versions

hal-03354578 , version 1 (25-09-2021)

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Ann Stavert, Marielle Saunois, Josep Canadell, Benjamin Poulter, Robert Jackson, et al.. Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget. Global Change Biology, 2022, 28 (1), pp.182-200. ⟨10.1111/gcb.15901⟩. ⟨hal-03354578⟩
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