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Article Dans Une Revue eLife Année : 2021

Quantifying the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness

Résumé

The relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness is poorly known. Using data from a cohort of cases and high-risk contacts, we reconstructed viral load at the time of contact and inferred the probability of infection. The effect of viral load was larger in household contacts than in non-household contacts, with a transmission probability as large as 48% when the viral load was greater than 10 10 copies per mL. The transmission probability peaked at symptom onset, with a mean probability of transmission of 29%, with large individual variations. The model also projects the effects of variants on disease transmission. Based on the current knowledge that viral load is increased by two- to eightfold with variants of concern and assuming no changes in the pattern of contacts across variants, the model predicts that larger viral load levels could lead to a relative increase in the probability of transmission of 24% to 58% in household contacts, and of 15% to 39% in non-household contacts.
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Dates et versions

hal-03405884 , version 1 (27-10-2021)

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Aurélien Marc, Marion Kerioui, Julie Bertrand, François Blanquart, Oriol Mitjà, et al.. Quantifying the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and infectiousness. eLife, 2021, 10, ⟨10.7554/eLife.69302⟩. ⟨hal-03405884⟩
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