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Article Dans Une Revue Asian Population Studies Année : 2010

The demographic window and economic dependency ratio in the Hong Kong SAR

P Yip
  • Fonction : Auteur
Ksl Cheung
  • Fonction : Auteur
Sck Law
  • Fonction : Auteur
I Chi
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Hong Kong, like other countries with developed economies, is experiencing significant population ageing. The shift in the population age structure results from a combination of decreasing mortality rates and prolonged low fertility rates. This paper investigates the economic impact of changes in a population's age structure. We forecast on sex-specific labour force participation rates (LFPRs) and the economic dependency ratio (EDR) using different scenarios. Our results show that the below-unity level for the EDR—prevalent since 1996—will exceed unity in 2015 and rise steeply thereafter. By 2036, the projected EDR will reach an unprecedented high of 1.4, where every three economically-inactive persons will be supported by two economically-active persons in Hong Kong. This projection not only reflects a significant age shift towards the older end of the age spectrum, but is also driven by declining LFPRs among men.
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Dates et versions

hal-03477232 , version 1 (13-12-2021)

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P Yip, Ksl Cheung, Sck Law, I Chi, Jean-Marie Robine. The demographic window and economic dependency ratio in the Hong Kong SAR. Asian Population Studies, 2010, 6 (2), pp.241-260. ⟨10.1080/17441730.2010.494452⟩. ⟨hal-03477232⟩
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