The quandary of detecting the signature of climate change in Antarctica
Abstract
Global warming driven by human activities is expected to be accentuated in Polar Regions compared to the global average, an effect called the polar amplification. Yet, for Antarctica, the amplitude of warming is still poorly constrained due to short weather observations and the large decadal climate variability. Using a compilation of 78 ice core records, we provide a high-resolution reconstruction of past temperatures over the last 1000 years for seven regions of Antarctica and direct evidence of Antarctic polar amplification at regional and continental scales. We also show that the amplitude of both natural and forced variability is not captured by the CMIP5 and 6 model ensemble members, part of which could be explained by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). This shows that not considering feedback loops causing the polar amplification could lead to an underestimation of the magnitude of anthropogenic warming and its consequences in Antarctica.
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Climatology| Origin | Files produced by the author(s) |
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