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Article Dans Une Revue Quaternary Science Reviews Année : 2012

Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions

Résumé

This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: a b s t r a c t Temperature changes in Antarctica over the last millennium are investigated using proxy records, a set of simulations driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings and one simulation with data assimilation. Over Antarctica, a long term cooling trend in annual mean is simulated during the period 1000e1850. The main contributor to this cooling trend is the volcanic forcing, astronomical forcing playing a dominant role at seasonal timescale. Since 1850, all the models produce an Antarctic warming in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. We present a composite of Antarctic temperature, calculated by averaging seven temperature records derived from isotope measurements in ice cores. This simple approach is supported by the coherency displayed between model results at these data grid points and Antarctic mean temperature. The composite shows a weak multi-centennial cooling trend during the pre-industrial period and a warming after 1850 that is broadly consistent with model results. In both data and simulations, large regional variations are superimposed on this common signal, at decadal to centennial timescales. The model results appear spatially more consistent than ice core records. We conclude that more records are needed to resolve the complex spatial distribution of Antarctic temperature variations during the last millennium.

Dates et versions

hal-02105638 , version 1 (23-04-2019)

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Citer

H. Goosse, M. Braida, X. Crosta, A. Mairesse, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, et al.. Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions. Quaternary Science Reviews, 2012, 55, pp.75-90. ⟨10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.09.003⟩. ⟨hal-02105638⟩
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