Global Carbon Budget 2022 - CNRS - Centre national de la recherche scientifique
Article Dans Une Revue Earth System Science Data Année : 2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Pierre Friedlingstein (1, 2) , Michael O'Sullivan (3) , Matthew Jones (4) , Robbie M. Andrew (5) , Luke Gregor (6) , Judith Hauck (7) , Corinne Le Quéré (8) , Ingrid Luijkx (9) , Are Olsen (10, 11) , Glen Peters (5) , Wouter Peters (12) , Julia Pongratz (13, 14) , Clemens Schwingshackl (5) , Stephen Sitch (15) , Josep Canadell (16) , Philippe Ciais (17) , Robert Jackson (18) , Simone Alin , Ramdane Alkama (19) , Almut Arneth (20) , Vivek Arora (21) , Nicholas Bates , Meike Becker , Nicolas Bellouin , Henry Bittig , Laurent Bopp , Frédéric Chevallier , Louise Chini , Margot Cronin , Wiley Evans , Stefanie Falk , Richard Feely , Thomas Gasser , Marion Gehlen , Thanos Gkritzalis , Lucas Gloege , Giacomo Grassi , Nicolas Gruber , Özgür Gürses , Ian Harris , Matthew Hefner , Richard Houghton , George Hurtt , Yosuke Iida , Tatiana Ilyina , Atul Jain , Annika Jersild , Koji Kadono , Etsushi Kato , Daniel Kennedy , Kees Klein Goldewijk , Jürgen Knauer , Jan Ivar Korsbakken , Peter Landschützer , Nathalie Lefèvre (22) , Keith Lindsay , Junjie Liu , Zhu Liu , Gregg Marland , Nicolas Mayot , Matthew Mcgrath , Nicolas Metzl (23) , Natalie Monacci , David Munro , Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka , Yosuke Niwa , Kevin O'Brien , Tsuneo Ono , Paul Palmer , Naiqing Pan , Denis Pierrot , Katie Pocock , Benjamin Poulter , Laure Resplandy , Eddy Robertson , Christian Rödenbeck , Carmen Rodriguez , Thais Rosan , Jörg Schwinger , Roland Séférian (24) , Jamie Shutler , Ingunn Skjelvan , Tobias Steinhoff , Qing Sun , Adrienne Sutton , Colm Sweeney , Shintaro Takao , Toste Tanhua , Pieter Tans , Xiangjun Tian , Hanqin Tian , Bronte Tilbrook , Hiroyuki Tsujino , Francesco Tubiello , Guido van der Werf , Anthony Walker , Rik Wanninkhof , Chris Whitehead , Anna Willstrand Wranne , Rebecca Wright , Wenping Yuan , Chao Yue , Xu Yue , Sönke Zaehle , Jiye Zeng , Bo Zheng
1 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
2 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
3 College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter]
4 Rice University [Houston]
5 CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
6 IBP - Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich]
7 AWI - Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine
8 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
9 Meteorology and Air Quality Group
10 GFI / BiU - Geophysical Institute [Bergen]
11 BCCR - Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
12 MAQ - Meteorology and Air Quality Department [Wageningen]
13 LMU - Ludwig Maximilian University [Munich] = Ludwig Maximilians Universität München
14 MPI-M - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
15 University of Exeter
16 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia]
17 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
18 Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment
19 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
20 KIT - Karlsruhe Institute of Technology = Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
21 CCCma - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
22 LOCEAN-ABC - Austral, Boréal et Carbone
23 LOCEAN-CYBIOM - Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations
24 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques
Pierre Friedlingstein
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
Michael O'Sullivan
College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter]
Matthew Jones
  • Fonction : Auteur
Rice University [Houston]
Robbie M. Andrew
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
Luke Gregor
Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich]
Judith Hauck
Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine
Corinne Le Quéré
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Ingrid Luijkx
Meteorology and Air Quality Group
Are Olsen
Geophysical Institute [Bergen]
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Glen Peters
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
Wouter Peters
Meteorology and Air Quality Department [Wageningen]
Julia Pongratz
Ludwig Maximilian University [Munich] = Ludwig Maximilians Universität München
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Clemens Schwingshackl
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
Stephen Sitch
  • Fonction : Auteur
University of Exeter
Josep Canadell
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia]
Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
Robert Jackson
Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment
Simone Alin
Ramdane Alkama
  • Fonction : Auteur
European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
Almut Arneth
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology = Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
Vivek Arora
  • Fonction : Auteur
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Nicholas Bates
  • Fonction : Auteur
Meike Becker
Nicolas Bellouin
Henry Bittig
Laurent Bopp
Frédéric Chevallier
CV
Louise Chini
Margot Cronin
  • Fonction : Auteur
Wiley Evans
Stefanie Falk
Richard Feely
  • Fonction : Auteur
Thomas Gasser
Marion Gehlen
Thanos Gkritzalis
  • Fonction : Auteur
Lucas Gloege
  • Fonction : Auteur
Giacomo Grassi
  • Fonction : Auteur
Nicolas Gruber
Özgür Gürses
Ian Harris
  • Fonction : Auteur
Matthew Hefner
  • Fonction : Auteur
Richard Houghton
George Hurtt
Yosuke Iida
Tatiana Ilyina
Atul Jain
Annika Jersild
  • Fonction : Auteur
Koji Kadono
  • Fonction : Auteur
Etsushi Kato
Daniel Kennedy
  • Fonction : Auteur
Kees Klein Goldewijk
Jürgen Knauer
Jan Ivar Korsbakken
Peter Landschützer
Nathalie Lefèvre
Austral, Boréal et Carbone
CV
Keith Lindsay
Junjie Liu
Zhu Liu
Gregg Marland
  • Fonction : Auteur
Nicolas Mayot
CV
Matthew Mcgrath
  • Fonction : Auteur
Nicolas Metzl
Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations
Natalie Monacci
David Munro
Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka
Yosuke Niwa
  • Fonction : Auteur
Kevin O'Brien
  • Fonction : Auteur
Tsuneo Ono
  • Fonction : Auteur
Paul Palmer
Naiqing Pan
  • Fonction : Auteur
Denis Pierrot
Katie Pocock
  • Fonction : Auteur
Benjamin Poulter
Laure Resplandy
Eddy Robertson
  • Fonction : Auteur
Christian Rödenbeck
Carmen Rodriguez
  • Fonction : Auteur
Thais Rosan
Jörg Schwinger
Roland Séférian
Centre national de recherches météorologiques
Jamie Shutler
Ingunn Skjelvan
Tobias Steinhoff
  • Fonction : Auteur
Qing Sun
Adrienne Sutton
Colm Sweeney
Shintaro Takao
  • Fonction : Auteur
Toste Tanhua
Pieter Tans
  • Fonction : Auteur
Xiangjun Tian
  • Fonction : Auteur
Hanqin Tian
  • Fonction : Auteur
Bronte Tilbrook
Hiroyuki Tsujino
Francesco Tubiello
Guido van der Werf
  • Fonction : Auteur
Anthony Walker
Rik Wanninkhof
  • Fonction : Auteur
Chris Whitehead
  • Fonction : Auteur
Anna Willstrand Wranne
  • Fonction : Auteur
Rebecca Wright
Wenping Yuan
  • Fonction : Auteur
Chao Yue
Xu Yue
Sönke Zaehle
Jiye Zeng
  • Fonction : Auteur
Bo Zheng

Résumé

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

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Milieux et Changements globaux
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https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-03863123

Soumis le : mercredi 23 novembre 2022-08:54:08

Dernière modification le : jeudi 19 décembre 2024-16:50:03

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hal-03863123 , version 1 (23-11-2022)

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Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, et al.. Global Carbon Budget 2022. Earth System Science Data, 2022, 14 (11), pp.4811-4900. ⟨10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022⟩. ⟨hal-03863123⟩

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