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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2023

Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission between and into California state prisons

Résumé

Correctional institutions are a crucial hotspot amplifying SARS-CoV-2 spread and disease disparity in the U.S. In the California state prison system, multiple massive outbreaks have been caused by transmission between prisons. Correctional staff are a likely vector for transmission into the prison system from surrounding communities. We used publicly available data to estimate the magnitude of flows to and between California state prisons, estimating rates of transmission from communities to prison staff and residents, among and between residents and staff within facilities, and between staff and residents of distinct facilities in the state's 34 prisons through March 22, 2021. We use a mechanistic model, the Hawkes process, reflecting the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, for joint estimation of transmission rates. Using nested models for hypothesis testing, we compared the results to simplified models (i) without transmission between prisons, and (ii) with no distinction
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Dates et versions

hal-04188630 , version 1 (26-08-2023)

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Preeti Dubey, Christopher M Hoover, Phoebe Lu, Seth Blumberg, Travis C Porco, et al.. Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission between and into California state prisons. 2023. ⟨hal-04188630⟩
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