Refined Asymptotic Approximations for the Phase Plane Trajectories of the SIR Model with Vital Dynamics
Résumé
We build on our previous work to derive more accurate analytical approximations for the phase-plane trajectories of the standard susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic model, including host births and deaths. From our refined analysis, we obtain closed-form analytical expressions for the maximum and minimum prevalence following an initial outbreak. As in our previous work, our analysis involves matching asymptotic expansions across branch cuts of the Lambert W function, but we carry the approximations to higher asymptotic orders.
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